Manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to May, extending a period of flat or falling volumes that began in late 2022 – according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey (ITS). Manufacturers anticipate output volumes falling again in the three months to August.

Total and export order books were reported as below “normal” in May, with total order books standing at their weakest since September 2020. Selling price expectations jumped in May, to their strongest since 2023. Stocks of finished goods were seen as adequate in May, although the balance stood below historical norms.

The survey, based on the responses of 243 manufacturers, found:

Output volumes fell in the three months to May, at a marginally slower pace than in the three months to April (weighted balance of -23%, from -27% in the quarter to April). Manufacturers expect output volumes to fall again in the three months to August (-13%).

Output decreased in 13 out of 17 sub-sectors in the three months to May, with the fall driven by the food, drink & tobacco, mechanical engineering, metal products and paper, printing & media sub-sectors.

Total order books were reported as below “normal” in May (-41%, from -38% in April), and to the greatest extent since September 2020.

Export order books were also reported as below “normal” (-29%, from -13% in April). The level of export order books stands below the long-run average (-19%)

Expectations for average selling price inflation picked up in May, for the second consecutive month (+38%, from +32% in April), to stand at their highest since February 2023.

Stocks of finished goods were reported as more than adequate in May (+7%, from +6% in April), with the balance standing below the long-run average (+12%).

Manufacturers remain under significant pressure, with order books now at their weakest since 2020 and output continuing to fall. A growing share of firms expect to raise prices over the summer, pointing to mounting cost pressures across the sector.

Against an increasingly uncertain global backdrop, the conflict in the Middle East is feeding through to higher energy costs and renewed supply chain disruption, adding another layer of challenges for manufacturers, who are already grappling with weak demand.

Policy, now more than ever, must match the scale of the challenge facing businesses. Manufacturers need urgent action to reduce industrial energy costs, expand international markets for exporters and remove the delivery blockers holding back investment, from planning delays to grid connections and regulatory complexity.

With order books weak and price pressures building again, government should focus relentlessly on lowering the cost of doing business, speeding up delivery and making the UK a more competitive place to manufacture, invest and export.