Cebr And YouGov: Consumer Confidence Stalled Ahead Of The Budget

For the second month in a row, the YouGov/Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) Consumer Confidence Index saw little movement. The overall index fell from 111.0 to 110.9 (-0.1). Any score greater than 100 indicates positive sentiment, less than 100 indicates negative sentiment.

The YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index has now stalled for two consecutive months, suggesting that consumer sentiment may have reached its peak for this year. Notably, perceptions of business activity worsened compared to last month. This was likely driven by speculation in advance of the Budget, with its flagship policies largely being seen as a negative for near-term economic growth. Next month’s data will provide further evidence of the impact of the Budget on confidence.

While the overall index saw barely any change, there were some fluctuations in individual metrics. Household finance measures for the past 30 days slightly deteriorated from 93.4 to 93.2 (-0.2), but this was accompanied by an uptick in outlook of +1.4 points from 95.2 to 96.6 (+1.4). This may have something to do with September’s reported slowdown in inflation.

It's a similar story with job security: there was negligible movement in the retrospective measure – from 97.9 to 98.0 (+0.1) – and a more noticeable improvement in the forward-looking measure from 115.1 to 116.2 (+1.1).

Business activity measures in October were an exception: the picture is more negative than it was a month earlier. Scores for the past 30 days fell by 1 point from 112.7 to 111.7, while scores for the year ahead fell by 2 points from 126.2 to 124.2.

Both retrospective house price measures, which declined from 116.1 to 116.0 (-0.1), and outlook, which declined from 131.4 to 131.2 (-0.2) nudged slightly downwards in October.